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Inflation Expectations Jump To 3 Year High As Financial Pessimism Surges: NY Fed Survey

Ahead of tomorrow's jobs report which is expected to show a substantial slowdown from last month's 178K surge, moments ago we got another reminder that the stagflationary iceberg remains front and center ahead of the US, after the NY Fed's latest monthly survey of consumer expectations reported that Inflation expect…

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Hormuz To Year-End: Bullish Or Bearish?

With hopes of a permanent truce being continually undermined by minor skirmishes and blockade infringements, it remains unclear whether this war is close to ending. And while oil prices gyrate from one Trump Truth post to the next, two weeks of Brent above $100/barrel (only just inching below as of this morning) sug…

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Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz has jolted the world economy

Hundreds of merchant ships remain bottled up in the Persian Gulf as the United States and Iran appear to be moving closer to an initial agreement to end the war. The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through which a fifth of all traded oil and natural gas passes, as Iran has restricted movemen…

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Jobless Claims & JOLTs Confirm 'Higher Hire, No Fire' Economy

With JOLTs data showing record hiring (and ADP signaling acceleration in job additions), today we get some signal on firings as the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time was at 200k last week (below the 205k exp) and continuing to languish near multi-decade lows (near 1967 lows!!)...

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"Semi-Irrational Chase" Sends Futures To Another Record High, Oil Drops On Iran Optimism

The global market meltup is rolling on. US stock futures inch higher, but are off session highs, with oil falling for a third straight day as traders waited for updates on a potential US-Iran peace deal that would reopen oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. As of 8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures were 0.1% higher…

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